CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-11T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30719/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-13T13:02Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1263.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 731.409 Acceleration: -0.303866 Duration in seconds: 214013.65 Duration in days: 2.4770098 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.30 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 666.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/05/2024 Time: 13:02 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 29.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-05-12T07:39Z
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